2007: Problems and prospects

KWENU! Our culture, our future

2007: Problems and prospects

MAX GBANITE

New Jersey, USA

Monday, September 1, 2003

THE ORACLE HAS SPOKEN

In the year 2000, barely one year in office for His Excellency President Olusegun Obasanjo, GCFR, his then Minister of Works Chief Tony Anenih -- “the Leader” or “Mr. Fix it,” as he is popularly called, said to the media and those looking forward to challenging his boss that there was no vacancy in Aso Villa come 2003. The whole country went agog with premature ejaculation of emotions. Many people condemned the statement and others considered the Minister’s position as bordering on incredulous arrogance.

The Minister quietly went about his business. His appointed foot soldiers were deployed to get the job done. Here we are in 2003: Chief Anenih has been proven right. Thus far, he has become the Nostradamus of Nigerian politics. As the de facto Adviser Extraordinary to Obasanjo and undisputed party boss, or what the Italians would call a ‘capo du tuti capi’ (boss of all bosses), he was heard saying recently that the next president will emanate from the North. The geopolitical zone was not identified, but the pronouncement was enough. As if an oracle has spoken, the indefatigable and sometimes mercantile Nigerian journalists have risen to the occasion and used their creative imagination to tell their readers who the potential candidates might be in 2007.

OF POTENTIALS & PRETENDERS

As written in Nigerian newspapers, the potential candidates for the office of the President from the North in 2007 are as follows: His Excellency General Ibrahim B. Babangida (rtd) GCFR; His Excellency General Muhammadu Buhari (rtd), GCFR; His Excellency Abubarkar Atiku, GCON, current Vice President; Alhaji Ahmed Mu’azu, the Governor of Bauchi State; Alhaji Markafi, Governor of Kaduna State; Alhaji Abubarkar Rimi, former Governor of Kano State; and Brigadier-General Buba Marwa (rtd), former Military Governor of Borno and Lagos States.

When one ponders on the potentials of the listed potential candidates, without prejudice, the power houses are: Babangida, Buhari, and Atiku. The role of the other possible candidates in Nigeria of the future is foreseeable; their time will surely come, but not in 2007. However, politics can be very unpredictable in a yet-to-be-stabilized polity, as we currently have in Nigeria. Baring any major civil crisis and as far as eyes can see, the race for 2007 is set to roll. Nonetheless, it imperative to mention a few things about the so-far short-listed candidates, so as top keep them in view, before moving on to the big guns.

Alhaji Abubakar Mohammed Rimi

Considered by many as a capable President, he lost to President Obasanjo in the PDP primaries in 2003. He is seen to be very abrasive and arrogant in nature. His political power base is concentrated in Kano. However, there appears to be a serious breakaway from his fold of followers. Also, Kano voters are known to be unpredictable. With the emergence of new powerbrokers like Umar Ghali Na’Abba, Dr. Rabiu Kwakwanso, a former Governor and current Minister of Defence, Alhaji Ibrahim Shekarau, the current Governor, and a host of others, Rimi’s political power base appears to be dwindling very fast. Some kingmakers and even the ‘talakawa’ consider him the political equivalence of Chief Gani Fawehinmi: Both politicians and presidential aspirants are unimpeachable and prestigious noisemakers.

Verdict: Rimi, like Fawehinmi, may have to wait another millennium to realize his presidential dreams.

Alhaji Ahmed Mohammed Makarfi

Currently the Governor of Kaduna State, the man is trying his best to maintain peace and reestablish coexisting congeniality within his diverse people. The Governor is known to be highly articulate politician. Time is well on his side and, God willing, he will emerge in future -- as long as democracy persists in Nigeria.

Verdict: He was installed by political godfathers who may not yet be ready to see him dance the national dance in 2007.

Alhaji Ahmed Mu’azu

The Governor of Bauchi State is considered to be articulate in certain circles. His people of Bauchi love him dearly, but the issue is 2007. His current divisive stand on tuition fees, where indigenes and non-indigenes pay different fees to the detriment of non-indigenes, is a form of discrimination based on state-of-origin. Pundits consider his actions as that not befitting an aspiring national leader. Such actions will not augur well with voters outside his state of Bauchi, especially those from the South and other parts of the North who are considered “non-indigenes.” It is also a known fact that since he came into office, Bauchi has not seen any industrial development. The business complex in the capital can only boast of 40% occupancy. He has not been able to resuscitate Yankari water bottling plant, considered the first in the country. He is known amongst his friends as a shrewd businessman who has systematically converted all the construction contracts and major deals in the State to his personal gains, probably to raise enough funds towards his campaign in 2007. Those who know him very well agree that he may have the support of Bauchi people, but they will make sure that his ambition to become President of Nigeria is checkmated.

Verdict: His success will depend on the kingmakers and, of course, God Almighty. Time is certainly on his side.

Brigadier-General Buba Marwa

General Marwa (rtd) is currently the chairman of Nigeria Defence Industries and Albarka Airlines. The one-star General distinguished himself as the military administrator (Milad) of Borno and Lagos States. As a matter of fact the current Lagos State Governor Ahmed Bola Tinubu of the infamous Chicagogate is struggling to repeat the fete accomplished by Marwa. If he decides to contest, he must rely on endorsement of Northern kingmakers; once he receives their blessings, he will enjoy the support of the Southwest due to his performance in Lagos as Milad. The Southeast will remember that he is their in-law, and the South-South will learn to trust him.

Verdict: His prospects are much brighter than other members of his generation from the North and, God willing, the future speaks volume for this man.

THE BIG GUNS

The “big guns” are indeed big. These presidential hopefuls are well-known to Nigerians. If all it takes to win an election is name-recognition, then there would be a clash of elephants come 2007. The journey is long and the days are still young, but it is mostly likely that one of the three would eventually dwarf the other two. There are many factor that come into, and they can be packaged and presented differently. In the end, only one conclusion is possible, as we shall see.

General Muhammadu Buhari

He is a former Head of State, a man perceived by many as too serious and too rigid in his ways to be a President. As a matter of fact, he was dubbed a non-democrat and Islamic fundamentalist by President Obasanjo and his Vice President Atiku during the last elections. The General is very qualified to preside over a democratic Nigeria, but his past antecedents when he was the Head of state keeps cropping up. Some pundits say he is neither a democrat nor is he interested in being one. He may enjoy the support of the Islamic Ulama, especially the Izala sect and their almajiri supporters but, within the elite and Sunni sect he is seen as a very dangerous prospect. Many families in the North have not forgiven him for their loss of income when in 1984 he changed the color of the currency and detained many who had excessive funds in their hands. A question begs for an answer, and it is directed to some of those prejudiced Southerners who feel that the North is filled with religious villains: If Buhari commands the support and respect of the North and that every Northerner is a shariarist, how come Obasanjo won the 12 states of the North?

General Buhari’s failed attempt in campaigning in the Southwest, except Lagos, and his feeble rally in the South-south region during the last election clearly show that the country is not ready and willing to follow his brand of political leadership. He is still in court contesting his loss to Obasanjo. It is his right to do so, but how many Nigerians heeded his call or risked their lives to mass protest against PDP for rigging their right to democracy? He may be seen by some people as the squeaky clean General; however, his non-performance in extending Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF) dividends to other parts of the country, except the North, when he was the PTF Chairman has not been forgotten. He commands support from his people of Katsina, but he showed favoritism in the manner with which he handled road constructions during his days at PTF. For instance, the road from Kano to Daura (his home town) is well tarred, but the roads from Kano to Katsina, and from Funtua to Katsina is marred with potholes. His people remember. That was probably why, amongst other reasons, his party ANPP lost Katsina State to PDP.

Verdict: Buhari’s success hinges on his emerging as the candidate of the North, and his ability to convince the entire South that his brand of politics is needed in today’s Nigeria. However, his emergence as the candidate of the North depends on the very powerful elite that have not forgotten what they suffered during his Head of State days. God on the other hand has his ways of doing things, and all the General and his supporters can do is to keep trying.

Alhaji Abubakar Atiku

The able and capable supposed inheritor of the presidential throne is the current Vice President. His loyalty to his boss, President Obasanjo, is unquestionable. If Nigeria’s democracy is as practiced by the international community, then the chances of the Vice President succeeding his boss will be superb and second to none.

As is now well known, had Atiku opted to support Dr. Alex Ekwueme’s presidential ambition at the 2003 PDP primaries, Obasanjo would not have emerged as the party’s flag bearer. God in his infinite mercies sent political angels to visit Atiku, the same way the same angels in 1998 manifested to Babangida and used him to prevail on Obasanjo. The hands of God always come up whenever Obasanjo gets into trouble. It may now be appropriate to conclude that God indeed promised him a repeat. Will the same hands of God be extended to Atiku through Obasanjo with the collaboration of Chief Anenih? Nigerians will find out in 2007 or thereabouts.

Insiders within the Aso Rock Presidential Villa postulate that President Obasanjo (or Baba, as they affectionately call him) will never concede the office of the Presidency to Atiku. Their reasoning: Baba finally found out that the attempt to impeach him by the former Speaker of the House of Representatives, Alhaji Ghali Umar N’ Abba, and the crusade of the 17 Argonaut governors who asked Atiku to break off from his boss during the PDP primaries, were all the strategic creation of Atiku. Those who claim to know Baba very well claim that he is very vindictive and that he would extract his pound of flesh from Atiku.

The road to 2007 for Atiku started when he became the Vice President of choice for Obasanjo in 1999. The VP has been busy building bridges and reaching out to politicians in all corners of the country. He was profoundly advertised during the just concluded inauguration of his second term as Vice President. I witnessed at the Eagle Square, Abuja some banner-carrying supporters advertising their messages: “Sai Atiku,” “Tarzace Atiku,” and “Atiku 2007” The VP was obviously aware of the group, and he didn’t look displeased at all; in fact, he waved with approval in acknowledging their support.

However, what surprised many observers of the just concluded (s)election was the intrigue that unfolded itself in the home state of the VP in Adamawa State. Some unseen hands within PDP were bent on upstaging the VP. They moved money massively into the State and backed an AD candidate, Dr. Bala Takaya, who would have defeated the incumbent Governor Bonnie Haruna, the VP’s protégée. Had Takaya not withdrawn his candidacy on a deal brokered by the VP, Governor Haruna would have been toast. The unseen hands also wanted the VP to lose all the PDP seats in his state to other political parties. The intrigue was heavier than the Cold War-era politics. The intended political calamity was averted when the VP moved his political machinery back to his home state with the backings of the heads of late Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, Sir Ahmadu Bello, and Chief Obafemi Awolowo (the heads embossed on 500, 200, and 100 naira notes).

Had it not been for the support of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) officials and probably the good hands of God -- who was constantly disturbed by the ever-present praying mallams, the VP would have been embarrassed the same way Obasanjo was in 1999, when the President couldn’t deliver his ward, et al. Some high ranking officials within PDP suggested that what happened was just a sign of things to come against the VP for what others consider his fluctuating loyalty to his boss. The VP will need the support and collaboration of Chief Anenih to surmount any obstacle within his party to emerge as the candidate of choice. Will the Edo Chief agree to mobilize for the VP, if according to party insiders, their relationship is as frosty as the Alaskan fruit cake? You guess is as good as mine.

It is also alleged that the VP has so enriched himself to a level that the English word to describe his actions has surpassed corruption. Then again, who is not corrupt in Nigeria. It is in vogue to be corrupt. Otherwise how does one raise the funds to win reelection or ‘reselection’? Besides, these are mere allegations uninvestigated by the ICPC and totally unsubstantiated. The man should be left alone to continue doing his job, as long as the dividends trickle down to the common man by way of dash and other crafted democratic dividends.

Verdict: Atiku has an uphill task inside PDP, even though he apparently delivered 12 states of the North to PDP. That’s his major huddle. Once again, after all is said and done, the ultimate arbiter in his emergence is what God decides for him in 2007.

General Ibrahim Babangida

The man needs no introduction; he is unequivocally the quintessential leader. Babangida means different things to many people. To some he is the enigma; to others, he is the ill-intentioned Maradonna. Some penpushers label him ‘evil genius.’ To his friends and associates, he is “Oga” -- The Boss. Many people suspect that the Almighty God has selected Babangida to play significant roles in the annals of Nigeria. Generations born and unborn will read everything printable -- some good, some bad, and some ugly -- about this gentle giant of our time, an enigma. It is all good, as the Americans would say. According to Gayle Sayers, “A man is incomplete without human faults.” The whole world already knows the history behind Babangida’s ascendancy and the roles he has played in Nigeria..

Make no mistake about it, Babangida is not a saint; no mere mortal is a saint. However, he is a frontline leader of his peers, a primus inter pares. That the man’s name continues to resurface as a candidate for the presidency of Nigeria, 10 years after he has left the stage, is something even his most ardent critics must respect. If this man is anything close to what his worst critics are saying, then they must have failed to convince those in Nigeria who are clamoring in frenzy for General Babangida’s return to contest for the Presidency in 2007. Indeed we must be missing something that the recognition-seeking and self-appointed critics are seeing. As perfidious and as obnoxious as the claims of these criticstas (as in Sandinistas) may seem, this is not the place to address all the clever assertions, which they felt might hinder Babangida’s electability. Nothing could be further from the truth, but suffice it say that my articles published in kwenu.com and gamji.com adequately addressed many of these issues. The question to address in what lies ahead for the man in 2007, should he accept to contest for the Presidency

At this point in time, therefore, it is needless to educate those who choose to remain in the dark on the good things that the country has benefited from Babangida’s ascendancy. His supporters will no doubt bring them forward at the right time, since he has not even declared his intentions to contest. From SAP through MAMSER to the Oputa Panel, the records are solid and verifiable. However, should he accept the challenge to come back and contest the election, he will mesmerize even his detractors into voting for him. None of the reasons advanced or being bandied around by his detractor will be a serious impediment to his chances. Never mind what Chief Adedibu said recently regarding Babangida having or not the courage to campaign in the Southwest; the campaign is already rooted in AD-country! Mark these words: The same Adedibu with some members of NADECO, OPC, and Agbekoya farmers will throng the streets of Oduduwa land, chanting and rooting for Babangida, once the Azikiwes-500 naira, Ahmadu Bellos-200 naira, and Awolowos-100 naira come to town; Muritalas -20 naira are not accepted during elections!

Verdict: All things being equal and God willing, the only thing standing between Babangida and the Presidency is Babangida. Once he gives his okay, Nigerian politics will never be the same again.

CONCLUSION

It is obvious that Babangida would beat Buhari and Atiku to move back into the Asop Villa. Whichever way the factors are analyzed, he presents the better prospects. He is simply unassailable at this point. Take one relevant factor that might become an issue: the influence of potential First Ladies on voters. Dr. (Mrs.) Miriam Babangida has endeared herself to the hearts of both the educated and uneducated women of Nigeria. Her coming out to stomp for her husband will galvanize the women to a point of frenzy, especially when they remember how she empowered them during her era as the First Lady of Nigeria and when she enunciated the ‘Better Life for Women’ program. If Nigerian women are polled to take a stand, Mrs. Babangida will be their choice today.

General Babangida has immense support in the Southeast, South-South, and Middle Belt. The North will also support him. One might wonder what happened in Zaria and Kano; well, it is the same thing that happened to Awolowo’s statue at Ibadan, and to Azikiwe’s statue at Onitsha. There is no guarantee that leaders are all liked within their communities. If in doubt, give money to the almajiri and show them whom to attack. They will indeed act out their contractual obligations. The same thing will happen anytime you pay unemployed thugs to act out against anyone. In 1998, the youths of Otta pelted Obasanjo with stones and other materials; he is still the President. So the caustic critics should not rejoice over this matter.

If Babangida accepts to come out, his supporters within PDP (“sleeper cells,” if you like) will surprise the country and probably draft him into the party with the rest joining forces. Although, many pundits have beyond certainty advocated that President Obasanjo will and must have a say in who takes over from him, and rightly so, but God also has a way of insisting on the laws of reciprocity. And God’s will always prevail.

Nigeria as of now is known to posses to an extent a certain degree of political unpredictability loaded with native intelligence, an abrasive intrigue and approach to contesting elections and ultimately being declared the winner. The system is quite dynamic, and it is considered unique by political watchers. Voters have borrowed the GSM concept of pay before using their services; therefore, politicians are made to pay the voter’s first with democratic dividends in order to secure their votes. However, since the country is still considered a neophyte in the labyrinth of democracy, the transitioning will persist for sometime to come. Therefore, trial and error must be allowed to evolve. “When the come comes to become” (apology to K. O. Mbadiwe), the whole country will be presented with the right candidates. If as the Oracle of PDP had said the next president would come from the North, then, the North, insha Allah, will present a credible candidate. All things taken into consideration, the arrowhead points to President Ibrahim Babangida.