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Can Chief Olusegun Obasanjo be defeated in 2003?
Max Gbanite maxgbanite@hotmail.com Tuesday, May 7, 2002 In 1988, the late Ron Brown while giving his acceptance speech, as the first African-American (Black) Chairman of the Democratic Party, was asked a monumental question by the media: If the Democratic Party could field a candidate capable of defeating the then popular president George Herbert Walker Bush, who just took over from one of the greatest American presidents, Ronald Reagan. Mr. Ron Brown pondered for a moment before replying with a monumental YES as his answer. The press dismissed his answer as another anathema of emotional display commonly associated with Black folks. But Ron Brown proved them all wrong when campaign master extraordinaire James Carville unveiled the 'master' Bill Clinton to the world. Politics in America, as they say, was changed forever. Nobody in Nigeria was surprised when Chief Olusegun Obasanjo resonated his intention to re-contest for the same position under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). If you recall, the Almighty God in His Infinite wisdom appeared to him while he was fasting (without losing any part of his stomach), and urged him to continue. When speaking to him God must have said something like this: "My son, are you sure you need Me to make this decision for you? When you were in Yola prison you prayed and asked me to spare your life, and you promised to be a changed man if given another chance… but you're back to your old self, my son. You promised to be a people-oriented person, but you seem to have changed into Chief Anenih's man. Well I will hold my blessing on this one." Every student of political science is taught to understand the rules of 'Political Spectrum'. The political spectrum is shaped like a bow with a line drawn at the center. If politicians are neither liberal nor conservative in their thinking, they are considered centrists. If a little to the right, they are considered to be conservatives. If to the far right, there are seen to be extremist conservatives. A little to the left is considered to be a moderate. While too far to the left is a leftist ultra liberalist. Having explained this, what followed after Chief Obasanjo came out of prison went something like this. The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), an amalgam of Group 34, PDM group, and other smaller organizations were seen to be a centrist government with a little shift to the left. And the other party APP (All Peoples Party) -- that fused temporarily with Alliance for Democracy (AD) -- was seen to be on the same spot as PDP on the political spectrum. As members of PDP were settling down to select their presidential candidate in Dr. Alex Ekwueme, the altruistic hands of God appeared to retired General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida (IBB), woke him from sleep, and directed him to send retired Major General Aliyu Gusau, and the then Chairman of PDP Chief Solomon Lar to "ambush" Chief Obasanjo into accepting the gift of being the president of Nigeria. Chief Obasanjo quickly accepted the ambush with minor wounds, not being able to deliver his ward, local government, and state to the party. The mandate was made easier for him when all the retired corps from the rank of major to general led by General Gusau on behalf of General Babangida descended upon PDM group led by Alhaji Abubakar Atiku and convinced them to accept Obasanjo on their platform precursory to defeating Ekwueme's candidacy in Jos. I delved into the past to remind the readers on whose platform or political back Chief Obasanjo rode to become the accepted candidate as the presidential flag bearer of PDP in 1999 election. Immediately after he became the president, he meticulously started biting the fingers that led to his ascendancy resulting in Chief Sunday Awoniyi's group having to leave the party. As a matter of fact, the likes of Dr. Alex Ekwueme, and Alhaji Ishyaku Ibrahim would have left too. Their only resolve is that they are truly the founding members of PDP, and they would not like to abandon the party to Chief Obasanjo and the PDM group. So back to the monumental question: 'Can Chief Olusegun Obasanjo be defeated in 2003?' The monumental answer is YES. How? When one uses the name of God Almighty in vain, consequences would be suffered. The first sign of defeat started when Chief Obasanjo's supporters could not find any prominent northerner from any of the caliphates, Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), and corps of retired generals who previously supported him in the last election to grace his reelection announcement. The second sign was when in announcing his availability to re-contest on the PDP platform, he forgot to include his current vice president in the equation; reminiscence of retired General Eisenhower/Richard Nixon ticket of 1956. This singular act of betrayal is a sign of things to come. While in Nigeria, I remembered that every campaign sign I saw on the road for 2003 read Obasanjo/Atiku Solidarity, Obasanjo/Atiku Vanguard, and Vote Obasanjo/Atiku in 2003 (VOA). None read Chief Obasanjo for 2003. It couldn't have been otherwise for a simple reason: The man (Obasanjo) had no political platform to contest. He must re-contest with Atiku to be able to win the support of the PDM group. If his choice for the position of vice president were Ahmed Muazu of Bauchi, he would fail woefully. The man Muazu as a Governor has not done much in his state. I have been there, and the state needs real industries. The first water bottling company in the country 'Yankari Water' is defunct and needs resuscitation. The Yankari Games reserve has not developed to the extent of attracting foreign tourists to the place. The only industrial office complex in the state has forty percent occupancy rate. The Governor is simply conducting a 'Rankadede' policy by giving money to supporters instead of creating jobs. The third sign of trouble for Chief Obasanjo's reelection bid is his suddenly waking up to reality to find out that he was finished if he didn't pick his current Vice President, or if Atiku doesn't accept him as the candidate for the office of the presidency. Already Atiku supporters in PDM/PDP were observed to be trouping to his residence to exert their support for his emergence as a challenger to Obasanjo in the primaries. This action if allowed to manifest itself will destroy the party. Well, the President in humiliation ran back to Atiku to seek redemption for his earlier mistake of not announcing him as his running mate; hence, he lent credence to self-appointed Prophet Tunde Bakare's prediction few months ago. The fourth sign of trouble is his record since assuming office, which was elucidated in my last write-up. [See "19 + 2 HORSEMEN OF THE APOCALYPSE" of April 18, 2002.] But all these actions are a little too late now. The Igbo people are clamoring for their turn at the presidency. They have a legitimate right for such a call. However, I have always posited that whosoever such a candidate would be, he must without equivocation be acceptable to most parts of Nigeria. We don't want a president that will be just for the Igbo people. Some Igbo people's demand for the awarding of Nigeria's presidency gives me mental diarrhea. They, as a people, must learn from the legacies of the late sage Dr. Nnamdi Azikiwe, who imbibed compromise and tolerance. Get me wrong if you will, the Igbo people must in their own way present a president for Nigeria. However, in making such a monumental selection, the candidate must be reckoned by the South-South of the East, the North, and Middle belt, and it may not even be in 2003. The West is of no significance to the national election. It was proven in 1964, 1979, and in 1999. Besides, they will never vote for an Igbo man. Thanks to Chief Obafemi Awolowo's policy, which Chief Abraham Adesanya and Afenifere are currently carrying out. To understand how Chief Obasanjo can be defeated in 2003, one would have to listen to Alhaji Saleh Jambo, the ebullient and indefatigable chairman of National Solidarity Association (NSA), which later transformed into United Nigeria Democratic Party (UNDP), and with the fusion with APP, has today become United Nigeria Peoples Party (UNPP). Alhaji Saleh Jambo is to UNPP what the Late Ron Brown was to the United States Democratic Party. He is a very serious man, and a deft politician of 'Iroko Tree' proportions. My first encounter with him was when I observed him addressing the Igbo members of NSA at the Agura Hotels, Abuja. He spoke Igbo with the fluency of an Onitsha man. I found his oratory skills very delightful that I went to see him later at his house in the company of Chief Clement Akpamgbo (SAN). I had to ask him why he thought that Chief Obasanjo would be defeated. From the narration of his political triumphs, dating back to the days of Alhaji Shehu Shagari, I was convinced. Although, I was a card-carrying member of PDP, I assured him immediately that I would discard my card and join his crusade for the emancipation of the masses. Alhaji Saleh Jambo has succeeded where many have failed. The membership of UNPP is an oasis of intellectuals, heavy players, and people capable of taking the country out of the rottenness that has bedeviled it. The list of members is an amalgamation of like-minded politicians from all the ethnic groups that make up Nigeria, and who have the interest of the nation at heart. They have proven track records devoid of political '419ers'. Theirs is the conglomerate that the late Dr. K. O. Mbadiwe called "the rebirth of a nation". The monumental issue here is who will be selected to spearhead this group to 2003, and courageously defeat Chief Obasanjo. The action governor of Abia State, Chief Orji Uzor Kalu, inferred that an Igbo candidate would emerge at the PDP convention, and that at such time there would not be a Mr. Fix it to fix anything, and indeed that the surprise candidate would be sprung on the nation, and that the candidate would defeat Chief Obasanjo. I am not a political illusionist, but any member of PDP, based on what we know today, knows that it is a Herculean task to beat the incumbent within the primaries. This President and his Vice are said to have perfected the art of rigging elections. They did it to Dr. Alex Ekwueme and Alabo Tonye Douglas in Jos primaries. It was repeated on Chief Sunday Awoniyi, and Chief Barnabas Gemade at Eagle Square during their respective attempt to regain the chairmanship of the Party. So it would not be wonderment to observers if they resort to rigging again to ensure their emergence as the party flag bearers. Therefore, for Chief Orji Uzor Kalu to make such a bold assertion on the emergence of an Igbo candidate in PDP, he must know more than we know. He is of course in the right place to know. And should the party succeed in truncating the availability of Chief Obasanjo and Alhaji Atiku as candidates, then the party truly will have hope of survival in Nigeria as a party that stood up against those it didn't believe in -- Obasanjo/Atiku. The Alliance for Democracy (AD) as a factor: My very good friend and brother Alhaji Ahmed Adamu Abdulkadir is the unfortunate chairman of the party. He is unfortunate for the simple fact that the Yoruba-led faction of axis of political evil -- Afenifere -- has not given him the opportunity to take the party higher than it is at the present. He has lost his most trusted political ally in the late Chief Bola Ige, who assisted his ascension to the chairmanship of the party. AD as we know it to be would probably become a political bride to be wooed by either PDP or UNPP when the come comes to become (apology to K.O. Mbadiwe). In line with the tacit belief of Alhaji Saleh Jambo, Admiral Augustus Aikhomu (rtd.), and Chief Clem Akpamgbo (SAN) and my having observed several meetings of these men of timber and caliber, my conclusion is along their line of thinking that Chief Obasanjo can and will be defeated only if… the Man from Minna, retired General Ibrahim Badamasi Babangida, GCFR, can experience the same kind of ambush that Chief Obasanjo experienced in late 1998. Nigerians who are disenchanted with the governance of Chief Obasanjo and Alhaji Atiku should embark on serious fasting. During the fasting period, they must beg the Almighty God to send his angels to visit some members of UNPP and PDP, and even the clergy and mallams to draft General Babangida to contest the exulted office. There are people who may not agree with this line of argument. It's their democratic right to feel so. However, for those of us who would like a change in governance, General Babangida remains the best and, only option. The most monumental of question is: would he accept the ambush? Most recently retired General Muhammadu Buhari joined APP and already some people are canvassing for him to become a presidential candidate. He has the right to contest the election. However, if he has the interest of the party at heart and respect of the fusion with UNDP, he should withdraw his name as a candidate. He is very qualified to lead Nigeria as a president, but not now, maybe in the foreseeable future when the political arithmetic becomes what it should be. For instance in Nigeria of today 2 + 2 may equal 5 politically. And Buhari is not suited for that. In his reasoning, 2 + 2 should and must be 4. That will be his undoing. But should General Ibrahim Babangida accept the offer under the new party UNPP, believe it or not, many serving legislators in both the upper and lower house would flock to the new party. I know this for sure. I remember sitting with Chief Akpamgbo at his Abuja residence discussing national political issues, many calls came in from PDP governors, senators, and members of house of representatives asking for positions to be reserved for them just in the event they don't get reselected in their party. That's Nigeria democracy in action. What then happens to the Igbo clamor for the presidency? They may have to compromise, take the position of vice president to be able to defeat Obasanjo/Atiku ticket. If the objective is to defeat Chief Obasanjo from becoming the president in 2003, then, the Igbo as a people must reflect on the current crop of leaders they parade as presidential hopefuls. If they are sincere to their cause, they would quickly realize that none would likely emerge at the PDP convention as the party's flag bearer. If they were not in PDP, they would have to be in UNPP (APP/UNDP fusion). Let the Igbo people think very insightfully; they will come to the realization that an Igbo president emerging from UNPP may be very unlikely and, were it to happen, such a candidate may not outwit Obasanjo/Atiku when the rigging begins. The rigging factor must not be taken for granted. The incumbent has appointed Dr. Abel Guobadia as his INEC (Independent National Electoral Commission) boss. Believe me, Dr. Guobadia is nothing near the late Chief Akpata on matters of transparency and integrity. He's a mere shadow of the latter. Being the chairman of INEC allows Guobadia the opportunity to show his loyalty to the incumbent's wishes. Going by what has been happening in the country lately on electoral matters, one can irrevocably arrive at the conclusion that the INEC chairman is a clone of PDP and that he would do everything within his power to assure that the party emerges victorious in all the elections. The incumbent recently appointed a new Inspector General of Police, who in turn appointed his AIGs. Judging by the current postings of these AIGs, more than likely they will show their gratitude to their benefactors by aiding and abetting the riggings of 2003 elections. Except if the legislatures come up with a serious magic wand to prevent this from happening. However, with a titanic name such as IBB joining the race with an articulate Igbo vice president, the PDP that we know today will be deserted by those who have lost favor with the party, starting with the fired ministers, the legislators, senators, local government chairmen, and ward chairmen will be hell bent on making sure that Obasanjo loses. With all due respect to the incumbent, General Ibrahim Babangida is the only person standing in Nigeria today that can crush the Obasanjo/Atiku ticket in 2003. His goodwill within the people is still reverberating, depending on what part of the country one hails from. He is the only leader that enjoys grassroots following in the country. When he went to Abia State as Governor Orji Uzor Kalu's guest in 2001, the whole place was filled to capacity and the crowd chanting 'Ogugua Ndiigbo' (Consoler of Ndiigbo) please come back and lead us out of poverty! When he went to Adamawa State, the indigenes ignored the presence of Chief Obasanjo and their native son Atiku and almost carried IBB's car on their heads. In Kano, during retired General Halilu Akilu daughter's wedding, the crowd was unbelievable and everyone was shouting "Tarzace IBB" (forward with IBB). The day he went to visit his friend Pa Adedibu in Ibadan, the throngs of people that came to see him were unbelievable. In short, IBB remains an enigma to Nigerians both at home and abroad. In the true sense of democracy, he is the only person with an Igbo running mate that can defeat an Obasanjo/Atiku ticket. If Ron Brown was correct in his assessment of George W. Bush, Sr., as a beatable President, then Alhaji Saleh Jambo and Chief Clem Akpamgbo are equally right in stating that Obasanjo could and would be defeated. Former President George Bush had no economic agenda to match his foreign policy for the American people to return him office. This resulted in his loss to Bill Clinton, who became the savior of American economy. Like Bush, Sr., Obasanjo has no economic blueprint for Nigeria to match his 84-country visit and should therefore vacate the seat for IBB to bring his magic wand back. It is no wonder that the ruling party PDP is having all sorts of problems managing its affairs and the affairs of the nation. When the media asked why the party was having such internal problems, Alhaji Ishyaku Ibrahim, a PDP stalwart and arguably one of the richest Nigerians alive, inferred that Obasanjo is the problem, not PDP. With this monumental question in mind, as suggested by the title of this write-up, I am therefore appealing to UNPP and Ndiigbo to kindly lay a Presidential ambush for IBB: the type of ambush that is so monumental that it will engulf his whole being to the extent that he would not have any room to say no to the monumental request and urgings of the vast majority of Nigerians who have lost faith in Obasanjo/Atiku to continue with their unmonumental leadership of Nigeria. |
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