A game of the masters
CHINEDU MADUABUM
Onitsha, Nigeria
Monday, October 3, 2005
“I am now in politics; I have carried out party registration which I think is the first step. Now, I have taken first step by registering in my ward so I have to work within the system.”
~ General Ibrahim B. Babangida (rtd)
INTRODUCTION
One game I enjoy so much is the game of chess. Though I am not so good at it, I understand it very well. It is one game that makes you think far beyond your imagination. It is a game for two players each of whom moves 16 pieces according to fixed rules across a checkerboard and tries to checkmate the opponent's king. And once that is done the master emerges. For a novice, it is “the more you look the less you see.”
In one of my
previous articles, I made it very clear to all who care to understand that the
game of politics in this country rest in the hands of the ex-generals. And
unless you receive their blessings, it will be very complex to obtain the
number-one seat unless the divine happens, which is always the last resort of
Nigerians. See Kalu: does he have a chance
on the website
www.kwenu.com
When the feud between the President and the Vice President was hashed, Nigerians could visibly see the pieces on the checkerboard of a game that has been underground for quite a long time. That blessed day when the President on a live TV program debunked an earlier newspaper report from his vice that he swore to him was the day Nigerians were invited to watch the game. Just as a novice, so also most Nigerians were left wondering the true meaning and direction of the feud.
Generally,
it is believe that the feud has to do with the third term speculation for Mr.
President, which is not far from the truth. However, beyond the third term
issue, this article will go a long way to uncover the secret that has left the
two most powerful elected office holders in the country in a deadlock over who
controls the game. It is a deadlock that was spurred by the picture of a third
party. It is indeed a game of the masters and it requires a master to make the
last move.
THE FIRST STEP
It is often said that a journey of a thousand mile starts with a step. Hence a step -- indeed the first step -- is required for any game. As it stands, PDP is the platform that will decide who becomes the next president, and any game played outside the party is a mere formality. Ordinarily and in a country where democracy is at least transparent like the Great Britain, such an assertion would be irrelevant. But in Nigeria where everything is pre-determined at least going by the last two general elections since 1999, the game is within the PDP unless the supernatural happens.
It
did not therefore come as a surprise to me as well as many other Nigerians when
IBB, who was never visible at the initial stages of the game,
decided to take his
own first step. Since the inception of democracy in 1999, many Nigerians believe
that the Vice President will succeed the President after two tenures. This is
because of the concept that has been working in Nigerian politics that the
incumbent decides who takes over power. Hence, loyalty is always the watchword
irrespective of the policies. Thus, when the Vice President discovered that all
the steps he has taken together with his PDM faction in the party were to the
benefit and enhancement of the first step of his invisible “master,” he decided
to shake the system.
If the Vice President claims he is ignorant all these while, that he has been strengthening the party for his invisible master, then he should count himself a political failure. And if the Vice President is aware and all he could do is this present feud between him and the President, then it justifies my earlier position that power in this country is still in the hands of the ex-generals.
In the first instance, Chief Audu Ogbe was masterly replaced by Ahmed Ali (a retired general) as the party’s national chairman, and then Buba Marwa (another retired general) became the unofficial spokesman of the party. He has so far done a good job. All these were done to build the military machinery gradually within the system so that, when the “son of man” arrives, he will be able to work within it. Thus, IBB -- the invisible master planner or call him the “evil genius” -- could not hide his satisfaction when he openly declared that he is ready to work within the system after taking his first step. This came after his registration, where even people like the Vice President had to wait for more than two hours for his name to be registered in a note book.
Can you see what I am seeing?
TOO LATE TO SHAKE
When the Vice President discovered that he has lost grip of the party, he decided to shake the party. The Vice President was shocked when he reliably discovered that the rumour behind the President’s third term was in actuality a disguise to bring back the former military leader. His curiosity eventually landed him in a situation that is beyond his control. The party has been totally hijacked, and there is nothing he can do about it -- other than pull out his men from the party. This is not also a good option for him. This is because it is easier to fight within than outside. However, whether he fights within or breaks away, he stands no chance against the ex-generals who are now in full control of the entire system.
The ongoing re-registration of members as well as the non-elective pattern of selecting party executives are clear indications that the game has vigorously turned to the advantage of the ex-generals. The registration of members into a party should be regarded as a welcome development that will enhance the chances of the party in elections. But the case of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is different. This is not far from the fact that elections in the country are pre-determined. Hence it will be of little benefit for the powers that control the party to register those who they perceive to be opposing their agenda of total control of the party.
One of the ward chairmen in Onitsha North Local Council in Anambra State reliably informed me that they have been mandated to register only those who are pro-Obasanjo or better still pro-ex-generals gang in the party. He went further to stress that in Anambra State, it is only those loyal to Chris Uba who will be registered. It is the same scenario all over the federation. The deputy chief of staff government house Umuahia in Abia State, Dr. Madukwe Ukaegbu, reacting to the ongoing registration in his state says:
“Party politics is a game of numbers. If their aim [ex-generals] is to register a selective portion of the society for one’s selfish reasons, then the party is bound to collapse…”
His
reaction came on the hills of newspaper report that registration materials meant
for the state was in the hands of an Abuja-base politicians opposed to the
governor Dr. Orji Uzor Kalu, a presidential aspirant in the party. The
case in Enugu State is not different as the Senate President is crying foul from
the hills in Abuja that he has been sidelined from the process. It goes on and
on in all other states in the federation. However, as those opposed to the
President are finding it hard, those supporting him are having a free time
registering. What can the Vice President and his gang do to shake the party
other than pull out and form another party?
This last option is a very dicey one because any pullout will tantamount to the end of the game even before the last piece is cast. There is no way the vice president and his civilian group in the system can fight the ex-generals outside the system. It has not been possible within; will it then be possible outside? Well if we consider the words of Benjamin Disraeli that “there is no gambling like politics,” then a pullout can still turn out to be the best option.
Or don’t you think so?
CONCLUSION
The game of chess is a game played by two and it is very visible that the game within the PDP is between two parties -- the ex-generals on one hand and the civilians on the other. Nigerians will be looking closely as the events between these two parties will be unfolding. This will go a long way to re-shaping the political terrain in this country. If by 2007 the scenario remains the same, then the country may have to continue for another long period of time to be transformed. However, if by divine intervention power is taken away from the ex-generals, then the country may begin to witness the type of revolution that happened in Ghana.
Thus, the truth is that this country will never be the same irrespective of the outcome of the general elections in 2007. The end point of this game in the PDP will definitely go a very long way to determine the shape of the country beyond 2007. Presently all Nigerians seem to have clearly deciphered the game and, as we watch and pray, let us remember also that our Super Eagles are in a critical position and need prayers. Maybe their qualification will bring more peace and stability in what is turning out to be a war, come 2007.
See you on the other side.