Decongesting Enugu gubernatorial field

KWENU! Our culture, our future

Decongesting Enugu gubernatorial field

M. O. ENE

New Jersey, USA

Friday, March 30, 2007

A CROWDED OPEN FIELD

It is a crowded field, a field of the familiar and the unfamiliar… all 36 of them, all cleared to contest by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). They have eyes on one prize: the tenancy of Lion Building -- seat of Enugu State government. On April 14, 2007, hopefully, they will contest the seat on the platform of 18 parties, a chunk of the reported 50 registered parties in Nigeria -- an unacceptable number of political groupings, but that is another topic for another time.

Who are these people pairing up for the top-two political positions in Enugu State? The list features at least four lawyers, including Sullivan Chime, ex-Attorney General; my elementary-school mate, Dr. Edward Godsmark Ugwu, who is running with my townswoman Mrs. Ethel Nebo-Ezeabasili; my high-school senior Barrister C. O. C. Egumgbe; one female gubernatorial candidate; a Lincoln and a Roosevelt; and two other female running mates -- Amaka Ene (no known direct relation) and Maria Ogbu.

BOTTOM DOZEN AND DEPUTIES

The bottom dozen and their deputies are mostly “seasonal politicians.” They add little value to the race, and they are not important to this analysis; either their names do not ring a loud bell (Roosevelt Arisso, Lincoln Chukwu, Ndu Ene (no known direct relation), Adaeze Ukamaka Okongwu, Obiora Onyia, etc.), or their political platforms exist mostly on paper (APS, CPP, MDJ, RPN, etc.). We will remember Adaeze for flying the female flag, since Loretta Aniagolu (NCP, 2003) sits out this round, and Joy Ezeilo’s quest for Enugu West senatorial seat of Ike Ekweremadu (PDP) is passé. Good for Loretta; it takes a sane soul to know when a field is too crowded for comfort.

All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA) missed the boat for failing to sustain its 2003 shine. It shot itself on the foot when it dumped Agballa for an unfamiliar face named Eloka Moses Ifeanyi. Okey Ezea is better off returning to PDP; the romance with Labour Party without “laborers” is akin to shooting breeze. Dr. Ugwu, Godsmark, gave his best under PDP in 1999; his new party, RPN, is a poor proposition. The only thing worth talking about is the political pedigree of his dainty deputy designee, Ethel; her Nnewi-born mother, Lady Nebo, was the state’s second-republic NPN women leader.

THE STILL-STANDING SIX

Of the six still-standing and credible candidates, five are from Udi local government area of Enugu West senatorial zone; and two of the five are from the same town: Sullivan I. Chime (Udi), Peoples Democratic Party–PDP; Dubem Onyia (Ngwo), Action Congress–AC; Oscar Okechukwu Egwuonwu (Umuabi), Democratic Peoples Party—DPP; Charles O. C. Egumgbe (Obinagu), United Nigeria Peoples Party—UNPP; and Ugochukwu Agballa (Udi), Accord Party—AP. Only Fidel Ayogu (Enugu Ezike) of All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP) is from Enugu North senatorial zone.

True to the prevailing political permutations, no one expected Enugu East to present credible candidates after eight years of incumbent Governor Chimaroke Nnamani, MD (PDP). This opens the race to Enugu West, which claims it has not produced a governor since the creation of Enugu State, and Enugu North, which sees the state through an Enugu/Nsukka bifocal -- not the focal three-zone legal structure. The reality, however, is different; the major factor here is neither senatorial zones nor deputy designees but sound structures. Thus, no prediction will make sense without weighing the structures of top contenders, three of whom we can deconstruct easily.

DECONSTRUCTION OF BOTTOM THREE

1. Agballa’s continued contention is more for political relevance than personal conviction in his viability. A former commissioner of works until he fell out with Nnamani early in the first term, his greatest chance was in 2003 under APGA. Running under AP is a quixotic quest, an ego trip and a psychedelic showmanship. His best bet for continued political relevance is a somewhat uncomfortable but realistic re-alliance with his old colleagues in PDP. His reported antics of running on the same ticket with PDP's presidential candidate makes the point.

2. First state PDP chair, Egumgbe fell out of favor when he joined the plot to upstage Governor Nnamani. Against good advice in Houston, Texas (during the 2001 Enugu-USA convention -- which he attended with the Governor), then political adviser to the Governor attempted a palace coup. Backed by the federal might, the Governor (Dr. Chimaroke Nnamani) beat the insurgents black and blue. Egumgbe and co-travelers found a base in UNPP with Senator Jim Nwobobo in 2003. The coup failed. In 2006, UNPP hoped that the emergence of General Ibrahim Babangida (IBB) and his expected choice of UNPP as a fallback political platform would magically transform its fortunes. It has not happened; so, therefore, Egumgbe’s quest is very doubtful.

3. The good thing going for Egwuonwu, the former Udi LGA executive, is the petition he sent to the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC). He is now gunning for the seat he helped the incumbent to retain in the last elections. He hopes to do this on the platform of a new party and with the supposed support of Chief C. C. Onoh (Aninaefungwu Ngwo). Nothing wrong with political pursuits, but now Rev. Egwuonwu (running with Rev. Chris Asadu), lacks the necessary statewide structure for the actualization of such an ambition. Going by what his camp has displayed, no prime pundit is putting pennies into his political slot machine, maybe prayers… plenty of prayers.

ANALYSES OF TOP THREE

The top-three contenders are:

1. Onyia: Former minister of state for foreign affairs, he is a product of Peoples Democratic Movement, PDM, the substructure of PDP that produced President Olusegun Obasanjo and his deputy, Vice President Atiku Abubakar in 1999. Onyia jumped ship while the Atiku Abubakar-Olusegun Obasanjo brouhaha brewed in 2003. The only thing going for the so-called “Abuja politician” was Abubakar’s surge in national popularity… before he (Abubakar) did a "Yar’Adua" and flew out to London to repair a bad leg! Dubem Onyia will swim and sink with Atiku Abubakar (Anaegbuachara Obimo, Nsukka).

With fallow grassroots, which ex-Rep Hon. Ike Eze (Stone) and Gbazuagu Nweke Gbazuagu (ANPP, 2003) have worked hard to cultivate, the now-ebbing AC surge will merely scratch the grassroots grasp of the powerful PDP state structure called “Ebeano.” Onyia is hoping that Ebeano will crumble. Hear him: “Don’t be deceived, Ebeano Family is split. … Most of the members are not with them any longer.” Ebeano is not about to unravel. Forget the latest EFCC-induced impeachment kite; PDP cannot cut off its nose to spite its face, not even to please Senate President Ken Nnamani in his fierce fraternal fracas with Governor Nnamani.

2. Ayogu: The fallout from PDP primaries triggered a coalition of some Nsukka (Enugu North) sociopolitical stalwarts under the Catholic canopy of Bishop Francis Okobo and the royal roof of Igwe Spencer Ugwuoke, Enyidiuru Obimo. The sectional sitting chose Ayogu as a consensus candidate. A former member of the federal House of Representatives (1999-2003), Ayogu aspired to replace Nnamani in 2003. In the primaries, he beat Professor Bart Nnaji, my kinsman Paul Eneh, and ex-military administrators Anthony Ogugua and Joe Orji. In the election proper, faced with Nnamani (PDP), Agballa (APGA), Alex Obiechina (UNPP), Loretta Aniagolu (NCP), and Emeka Eze (AD), he placed outside the radar and disappeared from the political podium.

Last year, he resurfaced as the Southeast point-person for the presidential plot of Nigeria’s Ayatollah, the controversial Sharia-practicing Governor Ahmed Yerima Sani of Zamfara. When the misguided venture collapsed, Ayogu beat a quick retreat and resurfaced on the state’s political playground. With 50 parties on the block, no statewide grassroots structure, and the national misfortunes of ANPP, he easily recaptured the gubernatorial flag unopposed. A Catholic, he equally easily emerged as the consensus candidate of a curious coalition: Okobo is a Catholic clergyman; Ugwuoke is a traditional ruler and an Anglican. Of course, other Nsukka aspirants (Ezea, Ugwu, Okwor, etc.) and various deputy designees disagree with the coalition's recommendation.

The palpable partisanship of Nsukka diocesan Catholic Church is akin to sowing wind; left unchecked, Enugu State will harvest hurricanes. Already, Anglican Bishop Chukwuma of Enugu, who is close to the government, has fired a warning shot. A worsening of the situation -- say the Anglican Communion counters with a repeat of the recent political pageant organized by the Enugu Catholic diocese -- could brew Belfast in Enugu State. The Adventists, Methodists, Presbyterians, Cherubim and Seraphim, Jehovah’s Witness, and the new-millennium churches are yet to speak, neither has Odinani – the socio-environmental Igbo traditional faith to which even Christians still subscribe.

The openly sectional and controversial consensus candidacy of Ayogu would not have deserved much space if not for the contentious PDP primaries. The failure of Dr. Osita Ogbu, ex-economic adviser to President Obasanjo, and Deputy Governor Okechukwu Itanyi created more divisions in Ebeano-PDP, as if "Nnamani vs. Nnamani" was not bad enough. However, the new division is not deep enough to suck Ogbu, Itanyi, or even the alienated Nwodo clan (except for Dr. Joe Nwodo) into the controversial coalition. In addition, Senator Emeka Okoro (Enugu North) is still in the party of the President -- PDP. Therefore, even in an apparent disunity, PDP remains strong.

3. Chime: Anyone who has been reading my serial “Shout-out to Sullivan Chime” on www.kwenu.com will wonder why the gubernatorial gang is still being “decongested.” Simply said, though there are credible challengers, Chime is the frontrunner; others are in a remote rear, but they deserve ample assessment. The Ebeano-PDP adopted and endorsed the scion of legendary first-republic parliamentarian and later Udi town traditional ruler, Igwe Elias Aneke Chime, even before he resigned his political appointment. On November 27, 2006, ex-colleague commissioners and members of the House of Assembly escorted the Enugu-born lawyer to the state secretariat of the party to collect the expression-of-interest form.

The rest is history in the making.

With a deputy designee (Sunday Onyebuchi) from Enugu East, his campaign chair (Dr. Dan Shere, Secretary to the Government) from Enugu North, and support of the incumbent (Chimaroke Nnamani), Chime’s candidacy stands out in a class of its own and resonates. Nothing has galvanized so many Enugu State indigenes abroad since 1999, when they formed Enugu-USA, the first Igbo statewide association in the Americas. Chime is ridding on waves of goodwill and with bundles of good wishes. His popular political pedigree, the testimonies of peers and associates with whom he grew up, schooled, and worked, and his service to the state have prepared him for the job. If he wins, he will have no choice but intensify the delivery of democracy dividends.

Chime comes consecrated by Ebeano-PDP, the sole solid statewide political structure. With solid agenda and an oiled land force of partisans in all corners and crannies of the Coal City state, Chime’s emergence looks likely, regardless of the regrettable divisive dimensions of religion and region. Dubem Onyia is right: Only a serious split in Ebeano structure will skip the scale. Such a structural split this late in the game is doubtful.

CONCLUSION

Opposition politicians should come to terms with their impending also-ran status and start closing ranks around a possible AC-AP-APGA-ANPP-et al alliance, if only to shed the toga of peripatetic politicians. With over 50 political formations, the emergence of Ebeano is laudable and sustainable. Instead of waiting for the structure to rupture, the others can form “Ebeanaeje,” a parallel political partnership, and present a fervent and focused opposition that will work with soon-to-be Governor Sullivan I. Chime (pronounced “Chee may”). As his given Igbo name Iheanācho suggests, what the departing doctor-governor prescribed may be exactly “what we want,” what the people desire and deserve and his greatest political achievement.

All things remaining reasonable with National Assembly, the judiciary, EFCC, INEC, PDP, and Aso Rock, Chime is the man to beat; it is, indeed, his election to lose. In the congested and now decongested field, I project him to win and win well. Enugu State will be better for it.